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Predictable Gold Upleg Starts A Little Late

by Trace Mayer, J.D. on April 11, 2010 · 20 comments

Reading time: 7 – 11 minutes

The exciting news from the CFTC gold and silver hearings seem to have coinincided with the predictable gold move. The past six months have had tremendous events and it appears black swans are flying in flocks. Now the gold price appears poised to reach my earlier predictions but this may not be easily played for profit.

EARLIER PREDICTIONS

With gold trading around $995 on 9 September 2009 in Gold Party Barely Started I wrote, “This puts $1,300 gold and $25 silver within range without greatly exceeding previous trading norms”.

Slightly later on 9 October 2009 with gold below $1,050 I was interviewed on BNN:

BNN HOST: You said the credit crisis has not been calmed but intensified. Why? … So as we get more and more concerned with the top of that pyramid, the derivatives play, you are talking about $1,300 bullion. How do you get to that figure?

TRACE: $1,300 bullion comes from looking at the 200 day moving averages and where gold has consolidated and where it goes based on the usual uplegs. It looks like we are following the same thing that happened in 2004 with the rise in 2005, the consolidation in 2006, which went to the rise in 2007, and the consolidation in 2008, and it looks that it will lead to a similar rise in 2009 and 2010 which will take gold to $1,300 which should be a little bit above its 200 day moving average. But in the same trading ranges as we saw in 2005 and 2007.

SIX MONTHS OF BLACK SWANS

In the last six months many important events have transpired. The credit crisis intensified with CIT, Dubai and looming sovereign defaults. Commercial real estate is still frozen and about $600B needs to be refinanced during 2010. Massive fraud is being revealed on a grand scale such as with the 2,000+ page report on Lehman brothers. Greece is holding the Euro-zone hostage while Russia, as usual, most likely mass executed their political opposition. The spread between 2 and 10 year Treasuries has been getting omnious at highs not seen since the early 1980’s. Haiti and Chile rocked out. Civil unrest is increasing throughout the world from Bangkok to Paris. And to cap it off the CFTC gold and silver hearings led to some amazing convergence of opinions between Mr. Jeffrey Christian and GATA.

However, I did slightly jump the gun on timing as this late Jan 2010 chart shows.

The consolidation lasted longer than I anticipated. But that only leads to greater strength for the upleg. And given the past events in the last six months, any of which could lead to chaotic fingers of instability, I would rather be a little early than a little late.

Gold investment performance has been great. I still think the probability of $1,300 gold in Q2 is very probable while $25 silver may not be so likely; although there will likely be good returns in the white metal. Of course, I still like platinum and the current gain is about $600/ounce from when I recommended buying platinum.

JEFFERY CHRISTIAN’S DANGEROUS IDIOICY

Zero Hedge did an excellent analysis of Jeffery Christian’s interview on Financial Sense Newshour. Because Whiskey and Gunpowder recently featured my article Survivialism In The Suburbs and it stirred up some good discussion I thought I would hone in on some of Christian’s comments that have been lost in the kerfuffle.

Mr. Christian said, “If you look at fishes and loaves of bread, the ratio of derivatives transactions to physical underlying it’s 5 to 1; if you look at aluminum or copper it is about 15 to 1.” During his CFTC testimony he downplayed the implications of shortages, “Another thing is that there are any number of mechanisms allowing for cash settlements”.

CASH SETTLEMENTS AND EMPTY BELLIES

Using Mr. Christian’s logic about always being able to use cash settlements instead of delivery is ludicrous. How helpful is cash settlement of commodities for the people in Haiti and Chile? But then again, Mr. Christian is from Goldman Sachs and their CEO thinks they are ‘doing God’s work’. But last I checked while one can eat cash, like they can eat gold, neither are very nutritious.

Government deficits are generally funded by inflation. Inflation is used as a weak excuse for ineffective price controls. Price controls lead to shortages. These artificial, yet real, shortages lead to rationing. If shortages are too acute and in this case if the Federal Reserve is unable to turn their colored coupons or derivatives into actual physical loaves and fishes, like Jesus did, then the shortages can and will lead to starvation and death.

The attempt by government to disable the chief numeraire to mask the effects of inflation indirectly acts as a price control on all goods and services; particularly raw materials such as commodities which should be viewed as competing currencies. This treasonous policy is fraught with tremendous societal risk. While no one knows precisely how it will play out; my gold chips are on the outcome that it will not end well.

GATA warned about this in the WSJ advertisement:

The objective of this manipulation is to conceal the mismanagement of the U.S. dollar so that it might retain its function as the world’s reserve currency. But to suppress the price of gold is to disable the barometer of the international financial system so that all markets may be more easily manipulated. This manipulation has been a primary cause of the catastrophic excesses in the markets that now threaten the whole world.

A LIFE HEDGE

As a basic life hedge I recommend a three month supply of food and a 72 hour kit. These will provide protection against the vast majority of probable scenarios. Just to be clear, for the extremely dense ones, I recommend taking physical possession of the food and not relying on another institution who engages in fractional reserve food storage at a 100:1 or even 5:1 ratio. When I am hungry I do not appreciate a waiter’s promise of cash settlement instead of my giant steak.

For the truly risk averse who want to ensure the safety of their family then what is the 72 hour kit for? To get somewhere else; like a cabin or for the lazy and social: La Estancia De Cafayate. As with everything just weigh the risk and probability, perform your value calculation and implement your decision. We all have different risk preferences; for example some people want meteorite insurance but I do not.

CONCLUSION

The entire worldwide financial and economic system is a Ponzi scam and will evaporate. No one knows how this will play out but those who are farsighted and understand the Austrian school of economics know this is extremely serious. I was in Chile a few weeks before the massive earthquake. Upon small hinges the wide arc of our lives turn.

The massive imbalances in the gold and silver markets and the entire worldwide economy will not be quickly corrected nor easily played for profit. Too many adhere to the cult of government for that to happen quickly and without too much disruption. But Daybreakers is a good primer so simply be prepared with every needful thing. Tell me, what do you think?

DISCLOSURES: Long physical gold, silver and platinum with no interest in the problematic SLV, Streettracks Gold ETF Trust Shares or the platinum ETFs.

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20 comments

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Trace Mayer, J.D., author of The Great Credit Contraction holds a degree in Accounting, a law degree from California Western School of Law and studies the Austrian school of economics. He works as an entrepreneur, investor, journalist and monetary scientist. He is a strong advocate of the freedom of speech, a member of the Society of Professional Journalists and the San Diego County Bar Association. He has appeared on ABC, NBC, BNN, radio shows and presented at many investment conferences throughout the world. This is merely one article of 241 by .
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{ 17 comments… read them below or add one }

1 Radek April 12, 2010 at 1:05 am

Dear Trace,

I am a Polish and if you refer by saying “while Russia, as usual, most likely mass executed their political opposition.” to a tragic death of a Polish President and many others high ranking officials then you are doing a terrible judgement based on no facts. I would never thought that I would defend Russians (politicians), but it does not feel right to do what you do.

First, it is too early to judge the cause of the accident. For me, the accident was most likely caused by unfortunate coincidence. Our president was in a hurry to a very important celebration (70th anniversary of Katyn massacre). The weather conditions were terrible (fog up to 70metres) which hide an important obstacle a high tower up to 50 metres, which was most likely the first initial cause of the pilot loosing control of the plane. There is no doubt Russians did not like our president but they have nothing or very little to gain by doing what you accuse them of. If I followed this way of thinking I could make even worse accusation without any shred of proof by saying that Polish Prime minister could have something to do with it because he had much more to gain from this tragic death.

I was positively shocked by the response from Russian high officials. Beforehand, I was brainwashed by american main-stream media and people like Dick Cheney to belive that Russia was a rogue state. Yet, it is Russia Today tv which is a more reliable source of information. It is Russia which have played again a movie about Katyn massacre on their prime TV time to explain where our president was going. The Russians are on very tough spot given their history and dealing with their opponents. It is very easy to judge them, but we should not do that. You are a lawyer, what about the phrase – “innocent until proven guilty”? I believe that Polish high ranked politicians would not be able to respond in the same manner if the situation was reversed. We should give credit to Russia for an extra-ordinary way of handling this tragic and very difficult situation.

I hope that a death of our president actually marks a new era in Polish-Russian relation. The time were Polish people dieing in Katyn are not because they are killed by Russians (Soviets) but only because of tragic accident. The time when compassion shown by Russian people and high-ranking officials helps both sides to trust each other enough to talk to each other, make the effort to understand where both sides are coming from and build better future for both countries based on trust. I have seen no single accusation from any Polish politician so please let the Polish people be the first to throw a stone if there is any to be thrown.

What I find the most sad is that the cause of our president demise may have been his distrust in Russians. He may have refused a good advice from airport tower to go to another airport because he thought that they may have hidden motives of making him come late to this important celebration. If it was another country, another celebration they would simply go to another airport, land safely, and be late for the celebration. Unfortunately, this was not an option for a Polish president. Lack of trust may have been the final reason for our president death. What a tragedy.

best regards,
Radek

2 gordon perry April 12, 2010 at 1:07 am

I read on the web that gold may eventually go to around $5,500 an ounce. I’ve read many thoughts on this topic from unlimited to $125,000 an ounce. In a sense the ultimate price per ounce is an unknown until it happens yet each analyst has their metrics for what they suspect might be reached. However I suspect you would not be involved with gold if you felt it had a minimal upside potential. That said, an upside gold price of $5,500 an ounce though a reasonable increase, is hardly stellar when you compare it to many base metals and especially uranium which went up many multiples $8/lb to $145 – 18 times in 9 years. With that background, what price do you see gold achieving say in the next 10 years? Or is the question irrelavent as most currencies will be worthless at the end of the next 10 years?

3 Trace Mayer, J.D. April 12, 2010 at 5:34 am

Radek, Why would you not think you have the right to question the events? I find it interesting that it is ‘too early to judge the cause of the accident’ but the possibility of nefarious involvement is already being discussed; not just by you but also not being discussed in the media and that is a red flag. But first to establish motive.

Putin has been ‘reaching out’ to Donald Tusk (Polish Prime Minister) and inviting him to various publicity events. This is being done with the intent to drive a wedge between two political visions in Poland: (1) opposition to Russia and (2) collaboration with Russia. Former President Lech Kaczynski was a hard nationalist embracing (1) while Tusk was much more accommodating representing (2). Tusk is already facing domestic criticism for the natural gas deal with Russia which has led to greater control to Russia over pipes that transports gas to Germany.

But what Russia really wants is for Poland to be in domestic argument; then Warsaw cannot assume a leadership role in the European Union’s Eastern Paternership policy which is attempting to pull Belarus and Ukraine further into the EU orbit. As Moscow has been cordially, particularly after the ‘accident’, Tusk has a difficult time resisting Moscow’s influence in Central Europe (where the government, US friendly and Russia unfriendly, has recently been overthrown) and Tusk would make no friends in Germany or France.

I think you are in error to assert that the Russians ‘have nothing or very little to gain’ from this event.

The effect of the plane crash is a tremendous boon to Russia in the geo-political sphere. First, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Franciszek Gagor, National Bank President Slawomir Skrzypek, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Kremer, Polish military’s chief of staff, Gen. Franciszek Gagor, as well as the heads of all armed services died in the crash. Kaczynski was very vocal in opposition to Russia. Second, Bronislaw Komorowski, speaker of the parliament, will take over the presidency according to the Polish constitution. And where does Komorowski lean? Russia. Third, there were no technical problems found with the President’s plane although it was last serviced where? Russia. Sure, Russia has been ever so gracious with visiting families of those killed in the crash and is even running a broadcast called ‘Katyn’ on State television which is a Polish film about the massacre even though Russia refused to accept responsibility for the event for decades. But the bottom line is still the same: Not only has the anti-Russian voice from most of the main leaders of the bloc to which late President Kaczynski belonged been isolated, they have been eliminated.

So, while Kaczynski and Jerzy Szmajdzinski (deputy parliamentary speaker and candidate of the Left Democratic Alliance which is third-largest party in Poland, were trailing Komorowski in the polls now both parties are left with no front runners. How convenient for the pro-Russians in Poland.

Could Russia not be involved? Sure. But those are the facts and geo-political implications and they show a very strong motive for Russian involvement. Russia has engaged in these types of tactics in the past; like the very Katyn massacre that the delegation was traveling to. Are there mitigation factors? Yes, Kaczynski was prone to take risks and may have pressured his pilot to attempt a landing (he had done this before but the pilot refused the pressure to land in a war zone and was no longer assigned to fly for Kaczynski). Has Russia responded cordially? Yes. Does Russia’s response have any geo-political implications? Not really.

Could there be possible collaboration between the Russians and the Polish Prime minister? Well, does the Polish Prime minister have anything to gain? That is kind of like asking if there could possibly be collaboration between Rockefeller and those who shot Ford; LBJ and those who shot JFK or Bush and those who shot Reagan.

Will there be an investigation? Of course. Will the conclusions make any substantive difference to the geo-political implications? Most likely not.

4 Trace Mayer, J.D. April 12, 2010 at 5:40 am

Gordon, one of the reasons I like gold is not so much the upside potential but the fact that it has no downside potential; it is the risk-free numeraire. We do not know how it will play out over the next 10 years but I do agree with Voltaire that ‘paper money returns to its intrinsic value: zero’. As far as it goes with gold; I want to buy it while it is cheap and sell it when it becomes expensive. The charts in The Great Credit Contraction give some excellent perspective and a couple are found on the value calculation page.

5 Mike April 12, 2010 at 7:28 am

Mr. Trace,
Re:
“The entire worldwide financial and economic system is a Ponzi scam and
will evaporate. No one knows how this will play out but those who are
farsighted and understand the Austrian school of economics know this is
extremely serious.”

I am please to get notices of your postings in my email. I find your writing
intelligent and insightful. You have and are echoing a sentiment that I find
frightening and alarmingly pervasive. That sentiment is not in the main stream
media, but in the private sector of business and investment advisement. It
is scary!

One of the services for which I subscribe actually provided for and recommended
relocating to a “safer country” when the bigger problems within the financials
of the US system start to unravel. Call me foolish, but I expect that things will
be just as bad elsewhere, maybe not at first, but eventually.

These advisors, like yourself, are excellent at forecasting the markets. So, I put
allot of credence in their advice. However, this is a social issue for which
they do not yet have a track record, so for most part it is speculation.

Your opinion, (I plan in between the extremes) on one side, an advisor suggests
his clients plan for serious inflation.; To the extent that a shipping stoppage
of over the road hauling that could last 30-90 days leaving most store shelves empty.
To the far end of the scale, an all out break down of social order.

Where do you stand? Am I over reacting to the financial advice to wit I have been
Subscribing or are these extremes actually a serious potential outcome?

Thanx Mike

6 Radek April 12, 2010 at 9:37 am

Dear Trace,

First, it is great to see you that your opinion is actually well founded in your understanding of politics in Eastern Europe and political scene in Poland. It removes my worry that your statement may have been just written out of the blue without well thought process. My political alliances if any were with Prime Minister, but I was planning to vote for their opposition to make them realize that their is no free ride in politics and they have to work harder to stay in power. I always respected our President for his beliefs and uncompromising stance for his values. It takes courage to stand for your values and being ridiculed in Europe for doing that.

We have to first bury the dead, mourn, conclude the investigation and then ask all type of questions and answer them as truthfully as possible. This is what I mean when saying that we are making accusations too early based on no facts.

Let me present my point of view and why I disagree with you. You are correct in your description of the situation in Poland. Our president was in constant conflict with Prime Minister. However, their rivalry was caused more by domestic disputes over power than differences in Foreign Affairs. The death of Polish president is a Black Swan and therefore will have profound and *unpredictable* effects. Polish people are known for being capable of pulling together and creating a united front against a common enemy. If Russia was involved, which I do not believe, it will be really stupid because it would mean the end of “pro-Russian” attitude in Poland for a very long time. Russia prefers a friendly Poland then the one which is constantly looking for confrontation/fight with Russia. Poland can be of enough annoyance since we are part of EU therefore it is smarter to have decent relations with us. You can call Russian top politicians many names but we should not call them stupid. I also think you are overstating by saying “pro-Russian” attitude in Poland. I would just say not being anti-Russian no matter what the situation.

Few things I would like to dispute. We had Presidential elections coming this year in Poland anyway. Their outcome was uncertain at best and the problem of strong opposition to Russia may have been resolved trivially through the presidential election. Now, you can be certain that the twin brother of our President will turn every stone to make sure that Russians were not involved. If he finds a proof then he may easily win the presidential elections. Russians are not stupid they know they have a lot to loose. I can assure you the opposition to Russia has not been eliminated. The accident will most likely shift a lot of power into the hands of the political formation of our Prime Minister. The wedge between PM and president has been removed and Poland may be able to strongly express and pursue *one* direction. It may strengthen Poland a lot and create stronger Eastern Europe. Again, not in the interest of Russia. The gas deal you are talking about. If you believe in peak oil and the fact that Russians may easily sell their commodities to China any long term deal for Poland maybe very beneficial. Although, I do believe Russian will renegotiate if that deal happened to be against their interests. Here, Poland is in a very tough spot and a deal is better than no deal. At least uncertainty is removed. However, recent developments/discoveries of gas in Poland may turn Poland into a net producer and exporter of gas. 70 years is a very long time and judging Russians today based on what they did 70 years ago is a wrong approach. Do not get me wrong I am very worried and skeptical of them, as they are people who love strong fist leaders often no matter what their actions. The loss of army officials is unfortunate, but I will be very surprised if there were not many anti-Russian military guys left in top positions in military. You could probably safely assume that Polish military elite is sufficiently often both anti-Russian and anti-German.

Poland was always between Germany and Russia and they were always the biggest threat to our independence. They will always be neighbors who will try to assert the position of the stronger player. Our President assumed that the best way to hedge against both powers is to ally with USA. You know yourself in what direction USA is going to so this alliance in the long run may cost Poland a lot of. It is very hard to find the proper action for Poland. However, dialogue exercised by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is what can help a lot in the long run. We have a proverb “A humble calf sucks two mothers”, which fits quite well into an image of Prime Minister. He tries to get some deals with Germany and Russia. Of course, there will be always disputes if he is doing a right thing and at times he may be doing wrong things. The policy of our president political circle to do things for USA first and ask for favors later was not working well. Ask Polish people who have to pay at least 100$ for every visa application. We could at least get free visas. I think that more and more Polish people are aware of what is happening in USA. 9/11, depleted Uranium ammunition, gold cartel, economic hitman, harassment at the boarders making great image of USA disappear fast. Russia does not look so bad as before in comparison. I doubt Russia has engaged in any actions to get rid of the Polish opposition because it was weakening anyway. The actions taken by Russians are appreciated in Poland and hopefully will lead to investigation which results can be trusted. Only time will tell. I just wanted to raise my voice in defense of Russia, as attitude guilty until proven innocent can do more harm than good in uncovering the truth and improving the relationship between two countries. You have to understand that Russia would not be afraid to completely shot down access to the crash site for any polish investigation if they felt it would not be impartial. It is not in the best interest of Russia and Poland to get it wrong. What a weird times, I would never thought I will be defending Russia and their politicians. I guess one more proof that we live in very unusual times.

best regards,
Radek

7 Steve April 12, 2010 at 9:58 am

Great article! Do you foresee silver dipping in price this summer? I want to buy but silver seems a little high right now. What do you think Trace?

Steve

8 mike p April 12, 2010 at 10:25 am

Hi Tracy, a question,
the gold price now is $1164 and £750 and the exchange rate is 1 . 53 .the us dollar is the reserve currency, if gold went to $5000, does that mean the other currency exchange rate would more or less stay as is? ie, 1 . 53.
If the gold price was allowed to find its own level,who sets the exchange rate?
because if the dollar was to become like the zimbabwe dollar then no,one would want the dollar paper money, would they?
With so much manipulation going on,which country is actually calling the shots?

9 mike p April 12, 2010 at 10:29 am

a spelling error ,sorry Trace

10 Stephanie April 12, 2010 at 11:07 am

There are two things you need to do to break these people. Buy every contract there is and stand for delivery, no exceptions, do not settle for cash. The other thing is go to the 4,000 coin shops in the US and buy every piece of junk silver and gold there is. Make the MANUFACTURERS WHO USE THESE METALS IN MAKING PRODUCTS come to YOU, not COMEX!

11 Davinci April 12, 2010 at 9:52 pm

Trace,

Do you see the crack up boom happening? It seems that too many people are stupid enough to play the poker with risky paper assets in the hope to be the first ones out the door with the loot. Then there are the oblivious. I would have counted my self among them if Ron Paul did not exist or was not on TV in 2007.

It’s funny, 10 years ago I asked my financial adviser why can’t I just save and not invest, his answer was inflation would wipe me out if I had just asked where does inflation come from I would have had a lot more gold and silver right now.

I’m just a hard worker who is not incompetent enough to for government hand outs and just competent enough to be oppressed by government taxes and regulations. So my question to you is do you think a man like me could save gold and silver even after the bubble pops many years from now?

I don’t care about a new debt based currency I don’t care about high sovereign debt interest payments, I will not not help to enslave a nation.

I never want to hold debt based paper money again.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OU80B_5Ee4s

12 Trace Mayer, J.D. April 13, 2010 at 7:28 pm

I agree Stephanie. I do not really see much point in trying to fight them in the future pits but instead like to accumulate the physical metals on a regular basis with excess cash flow. The longer the price stays artificially low the more ounces I get to accumulate! Long live the gold and silver bull.

13 Trace Mayer, J.D. April 13, 2010 at 7:30 pm

Well, I think the rate of evaporation will be faster the higher up in the liquidity pyramid the asset is. That is the issue: currencies represent the common stock of nations and they are all headed to the fiat currency graveyard. Countries are trying to call the shots but they are rapidly losing their influence as the Information Age explodes organizations and institutions into billions of pieces.

14 Trace Mayer, J.D. April 13, 2010 at 7:43 pm

Hi Mike, sure, little annoyances like a 30-90 day emptiness of shelves is possible and I have been involved in that many times; earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados, etc. The more serious issue though was the topic of conversation with a reader this weekend over dinner. I made the comment “What geographical region of the earth has this (currency collapse and unpleasant political situations, think Lenin, Stalin, Pol Pot, Argentine junta, Kosovo, Somalia, etc.) not happened in? Why could it not happen in America?” Sure, America has not had a good currency crisis for over 200 years but they are a common occurrence throughout the world, seem to always be happening somewhere (Iceland and Zimbabwe last year) and the way I see it is everyone who uses fiat currency gets a ride on the merry-go-round. As with hurricanes and that earthquake in Chile I prefer to watch such events on my plasma TV than out my front door.

Which leads to my second question and the life hedge section. If you have to take the last plane out of your city, state, country, etc. then (1) where do you go and (2) how do you maintain your standard of living? My motto is: Be Prepared. Part of being mortal is you have to be somewhere and based on humanity’s past experience I highly doubt it will be extremely bad everywhere at the same time. If you do not have options then you do not have crap.

15 Trace Mayer, J.D. April 13, 2010 at 7:44 pm

Hi Steve, follow the gold to silver ratio to figure out when either are a good value. I have written several articles on the topic if you go searching in the archives.

16 Trace Mayer, J.D. April 13, 2010 at 7:49 pm

Hi Davinci, education is the first step. You can start to take steps to fight a revolution against the current fiat currency monopoly. Under 31 USC 5118(e) you can have gold and silver clauses in contracts. I like GoldMoney for use of gold and silver in ordinary daily transactions. Just start with gold and silver as substitutes for the current fiat currency and try to increase their market share in your currency uses. Like freedom, using gold and silver as mediums of exchange must bubble up from The People. That is one reason why, as Dr. Vieira observes, the fight over gold and silver is not about making a profit but about the role of gold and silver being essential checks and balances in the political machinery as protectors of personal liberties and freedom .

17 Davinci April 13, 2010 at 9:25 pm

Thanks Trace, but I will assume your answer to my, Yes or No question was, “It Depends”. Meaning it depends on the number of people who are seduced by the riches of a paper system and believe we would not have advanced this far without it.

At the end of the day money is just a tool and free people should use the best tool for a particular job.

My task is to save and be free and independent thus I will save gold and silver and learn how to trade between the two until I maximize the number of oz I have.

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